Tuesday, December 29, 2009
Thursday, December 3, 2009
Friday, November 20, 2009
In the short-term I will look for range opportunities in the triangular consolidation with a definite leaning towards bearish trades and selling on rallies. I will look for bearish candlesticks to confirm, and look for entries around 1.4950-1.4980 resistance.
Today Shorts preferred. From 1.4980 resistance targets are 1.4950, 1.4915, 1.4880.
Monday, November 16, 2009
Look for shorts below 1.5050 with targets (from 1.5015) at 1.4980, 1.4950, 1.4915 and 1.4880. Above 1.5015 look for a re-challenge of 1.5050
Monday, November 9, 2009
I saw good pips last week off of the EUR/USD rise and, to begin this week, the trend remains strongly to the upside and I will continue to look for buying opportunities on dips. Fundamentally the market is still attempting to figure out whether an economic recovery is actually happening or if it is just government-supported, and IF it is happening for real what the implications for the EUR/USD would be. In the meantime the pair has technically been steadily making higher highs and higher lows. In summary: the short-term trend is up so I will look to buy.
Trading Idea: support zone between 1.4900-1.5050 and I will look for a failure/bullish signs in this area. Long targets preferred at (from 1.4870) 1.4905, 1.4970 and 1.5100.
Thursday, November 5, 2009
- The latest US interest rates are announced on Wednesday. Rates are expected to remain on hold, and any change could trigger a shock to the Forex market.
- The ADP employment change result is also released on Wednesday. This is the most important indicator in advance of Non Farm Payrolls. It can be used to predict the NFP result and is a trigger to action in the dollar all by itself.
Monday, November 2, 2009
To reduce the risk, in every single trade you should not use more than 5% risk. Always place a Stop Loss (SL) and use a Trailing Stop feature (if available). The best Ratio of TP (Profit Target) and SL should be 1:1 or 1:2 max. (example: Equity $10000. TP 50 pips, SL 50 pips, Using 1 Lot)Go here...
Friday, October 30, 2009
Short for yesterday was stopped out for a small loss yesterday as US GDP grew by 3.5% – more than expected and technically signaling an end to the US recession. There is still a lot of weakness in the US economy and much of that growth was driven by government programs/spending, but US stocks rallied nonetheless driving the EUR/USD past resistance levels. I talk about this a lot recently but you have to watch US stocks closely in this risk-appetite driven markets. Strong US stocks signal risk appetite which means the higher yielding Euro will perform better than the record-low interest rate USD will perform poorly. Yesterday was the strong day for US stock markets in 3 months – and the EUR/USD rallied over 100 pips.
Currently the pair is consolidating its gains in a tight 1.4820-1.4855 range which could make for a nice breakout.
Trading Idea: On the 4-hour chart we have a nice flagpole with a consolidation pattern forming in a flag pattern. Bias is to the upside. I will look to buy a sustained break of 1.4865 or, if the 60M candlestick is bullish buy near the bottom at 1.4820. Long targets would be 1.4895, 1.4925 and 1.4955. On a sustained break below 1.4815 my tendency would be to sell a rally for a re-challenge of 1.4750.
Nice weekend to all...blogger..Please smile at nuff..ha22
Thursday, October 29, 2009
Wednesday, October 28, 2009
Monday, October 26, 2009
Thursday, October 22, 2009
The EURUSD attempted to push lower yesterday but found support at 1.4943, whipsawed to the upside, topped at 1.5037 and closed at 1.5025, indicating bullish momentum remains strong and downside corrections might be over at this phase. My bullish momentum still move perfectly inside the bullish channel with the lower line provide good technical support area. The bias remains bullish in nearest term still targeting 1.5080 and 1.5140. Key support level remains at 1.4950/60 area and the lower line of the bullish channel. Short position is not recommended.
Tuesday, October 20, 2009
Saturday, October 17, 2009
The EURUSD has had one hourly bar close below the 100 hour MA today (1st hourly close below the moving average since 4:00 ET on October 12th). This move was reversed in the next hour. However, 4 separate hourly bars have moved below this key moving average today. Is this an indication of a further correction for the EURUSD?
For those looking that way, the market did have a double top at the 1.4967 level yesterday and today. That often leads to some selling and indeed we did see that today. For the bulls, the move below and back above the 100 hour MA is signficant especially since the market has not been below thay key moving average since the 12th. Another thing in the favor of the bulls is the inability to take out the lows from Wednesday or Thursday. Those levels came in at 1.4839 and 1.4842 respectively
Tuesday, October 13, 2009
Sometimes you just have to take a step back from the charts and think about what all those little candlesticks mean, and right now the dollar bulls and bears are locked in a struggle to determine the future of the currency. On the USD index charts (not shown) we can see the USD is against several different support levels vs. various currencies, and the EUR/USD itself is flirting with strong resistance at 1.4820. For our shorter term purposes the waters are nearly as murky – if you back out to the 4h chart you can see a giant V shape from late Septemeber to present, with a slight bullish bias. Though I am bearish in the long term, I will put my personal feelings aside and trade with the bullish, short-term trend.
Trading Idea: looking to buy near support above 1.4725. Long targets at 1.4755, 1.4790 and 1.4820.
Thursday, October 8, 2009
Trading Idea: Trend is up and I am looking to buy dips on a failure of support at 1.4720. Long targets at 1.4755, 1.4790 and 1.4825.
Monday, October 5, 2009
And right now the bulls are winning. A mixture of fundamental news helped to boost the Euro over the dollar, including 1) the Aussie government unexpectedly raising interest rate led to an increase in USD shorting and 2) a story was published in the UK that said several governments, including China and Russia were looking to partially replace the USD as the reserve currency for crude within 9 years. These news pieces provided the extra boost to raise the EUR/USD past key resistance at 1.4680 and up to another key resistance at 1.4720. The Euro is still overbought against the dollar but there is big money involved here that is out of our control, therefore we will take what the market gives us. I would look for an opportunity to short around 1.4725 if the failure was present or the candlestick was strong enough, but at this point I have to also start looking for buying opportunities, first at support around 1.4650. Until we get some more direction from the markets, this might be a good day to sit out and wait for some more news :).
Friday, September 25, 2009
Thursday, September 24, 2009
Trading Idea: Looking to sell a break of blue trend support line currently at 1.4710 but rising, or sell a failure below 1.4800. From 1.48 short targets are 1.4730, 1.4690, 1.4655 and 1.4620.
Tuesday, September 15, 2009
Sunday, September 13, 2009
Friday, September 11, 2009
Trading Idea: Trend is up and I am looking for buying opportunities. I would buy a sustained break of 1.4615 or a dip with candlestick confirmation to support above 1.4500. At 1.4500 targets are 1.4555 and 1.4615. With a break above 1.4615 I’m looking for 1.4660 and 1.4695.
Tuesday, September 8, 2009
Trading Idea: Nearest support is at 1.4400 and then 1.4365. I will look to set longs on a bounce off of these support areas with targets at 1.4455, 1.4495 and 1.4525. With the RSI heavily overbought (was at almost 90 for hourlies) I would also look to sell another run into resistance between 1.4520-1.4550, with short targets back down to 1.4425.
Monday, September 7, 2009
In holiday type trading (US is off for Labor Day national holiday), the EURUSD has nevertheless been able to continue it’s move higher from Friday’s afternoon rebound. The gains have been attributed to an increased demand for “riskier currency pairs”. German Factory Orders also showed stronger output as they rose by 3.5% MoM after a 4.5% gain in June. It also was the 5th increase in a row.
The pair has moved above the trendline resistance at the 1.4333 level. This trendline will be eyed for support today. On the upside, the next hurdle will be the 1.4377 (high from last week) and 1.4386 (trendline off the high from August 5th).
Thursday, September 3, 2009
Some mixed signals coming off the EUR/USD yesterday as the pair charged through resistance at 1.4255, signaling that the euro bulls are not going down without a fight. After the third bounce off support around 1.4200 the pair jumped 100 pips in 3 hours before easing off just below 1.4300. This latest thrust signals possible strength left in the Euro but I expected the upside to be limited by resistance at 1.4300 and the intersection of two trend resistance lines (yellow on chart below) just above 1.4300.
Trading Idea: Indicators are mixed, but I would look to sell with a tight stop in the 1.4315 area with an eye back down to 1.4260 and 1.4225.
Wednesday, September 2, 2009
Sunday, August 30, 2009
EUR/USD was able to break through support (and last week’s signals) of 1.4300 but has not managed to do much since then, only getting down to around 1.4280. It has since zig-zagged in a tight range between 1.4280-1.4315. In the short, short term I expect this range to continue (might be good for some scalping) but my bias remains bullish and I will look for buying opportunities near support and on dips.
Trading Idea: Pair is right on (weak) support of 1.4280 right now, better support not seen until trend support just below 1.4250 where I will look for buying opportunities. Long targets back up to 1.4300, 1.4345 and 1.4395. If support is broken look for a re-challenge of 1.4200.
Thursday, August 27, 2009
It has been a fairly predictable week (knock on wood!) for the EUR/USD pair, with price action more or less mimicking signals. Yesterday we saw the major rise, as expected to a new high of 1.44050. Bears quickly stepped in at that point to temper the rally but not after the pair had gained nearly 200 pips in under 4 hours! The pair then retreated to 1.4338 - the 38.2% fibonacci retracement of the rally. Thanks to this new high I am freshly bullish, and I would prefer to buy on dips near support.
Trading Idea: We have good support to buy around above 1.4300, which is near the 50 and 61.8 fib retracement levels of the latest rally. From there long targets are at 1.4345, 1.4385 and 1.4445
Bears fought back today (on positive US data), driving down the EUR/USD almost 150 pips in just 6 hours. Pair did rise steadily for the first hours of the day but hit a wall of support at 1.4350 that sent exchange rates plummeting. There is currently disagreement among economists whether positive US economic data will help or hurt the US dollar (if you haven’t read my article here on risk aversion and confusion over fundamentals). Today it definitely helped the dollar. However, as long as the pair stays above 1.4170 I am net bullish so I will look for buying opportunities, and sell any bounce off of 1.4350.
Trading Idea: Look for buying opportunities between support zones at 1.4175-1.4200. Long targets at 1.4270 and 1.4345.
Tuesday, August 25, 2009
Good 100 pips off of yesterday’s signal as the pair bounced hard off of support just above 1.4250 and rallied for 100 pips to 1.4360. Momentum was not sustained however and the pair quickly fell back down to 1.4280 levels. Fundamentals are mixed (see my earlier post about how different investors are interpreting the news out of the US in different ways, causing volatility) and traders are looking for direction - which makes me think we will see some tight ranges and zig-zagging over the next couple of days and then possibly a big break either up or down, so keep stops relatively tight.
Trading Idea: Still looking to go long, preferably near trend support currently around 1.4275, though I will try to catch it on the way up or down around 1.4250. Long targets at 1.4345 and 1.4385.
Yesterday’s buy signal at 1.4250 was never reached, though it came close when price action dipped to 1.4279 before jumping back up 60 pips. Today I am looking for more of the same with signals pointing towards a long between 1.4250-1.4275. It is really taking a lot of determination for me not to sell into one of these rallies as I think the fundamentals don’t support the latest Euro strength, but if I was going to sell it would be up around 1.4450. In the short-term I will continue to buy dips near support, as the up-trend appears to be intact. We do have the US consumer confidence report coming out at 14:00 GMT and though I don’t expect it to move the market much I will nonetheless sit out for the few hours hours around the event risk.
Trading Idea: Longs favored on dips near support above 1.4250. Tight stops, targets at 1.4300, 1.4345, 1.4380 and eventually 1.4445.
Sunday, August 23, 2009
The EURUSD fell through the support level at the 1.4304 to 1.4312 level and headed toward the target support level at the 1.4272 level ( . The low reached 1.4276 and has bounced back toward the 1.4300 level again. The downside remains favored with upside most likely contained by the 1.4304 to 1.4312 level. I would not expect the price to move back above this level, however. Look for seller against the level as the story of higher stocks and higher dollar takes hold.
Wednesday, August 19, 2009
First target was hit from yesterday’s signal but the pair quickly reversed as the stock market made up some its losses. Pair was able to rise to resistance at 1.41750 before dropping back down to sub 1.4150 levels. My bias is still lower below 1.4200, which is a good resistance level and also the 50% fibonacci retracement from 8/13-/817. RSI signals are mixed.
Trading Idea: Looking for selling opportunity below 1.4200 for a return to 1.4105, 1.4060 and 1.4015.
Monday, August 17, 2009
Starting with the daily chart the EUR/USD is resting on major daily trend support dating back to May of this year, however it is not oversold at all on the dailies. On the hourly charts the pair is skipping off of support around 1.4140 as the pair is also skimming 30 (oversold) on the 60M chart. While the mid-term may be mixed, in the near future I am looking for a return down to 1.4100.
Trading Idea: Looking to sell near resistance currently around 1.4200 for a retest of 1.4100. Tight stops.
Friday, August 14, 2009
Tuesday, August 4, 2009
Tuesday, July 28, 2009
Pair continued to stay in its tight range yesterday. We saw a brief spike to just below 1.4300 yesterday but it was quickly tempered by a fast 100 pip drop. We do have a bearish divergence in the 4h RSI, but the slow stoch is nearing oversold levels as well, so the trade is not confirmed. I am looking for a little bit of a further drop to get the slow stoch to oversold levels, then a rise back up for a good alignment of slow stoch and RSI at overbought levels, while price action is near resistance on 4 hour charts for a sell opportunity.
Trading Idea: Looking for slow stoch to return to overbought levels just as RSI touches yellow resistance and price hits resistance near 1.4275. Short targets at 1.4215, 1.4170 and 1.4130. Would consider buying on a dip to oversold on the slow stoch if price is near support as well, in the short-term.
Friday, July 24, 2009
It doesn’t get much more picture perfect then yesterday’s signal - the pair gave us long upward wick followed by a bearish engulfing candlestick - two major reversal signs. If that wasn’t enough we had a bearish divergence on both the RSI and Slow Stoch. All targets were hit within 4 hours. But that was yesterday. On to today! After the major rally in the USD we saw the pair bounce off of oversold on the RSI, just touching 30 before rallying back up. I will continue to be bearish on the pair and look for selling opps near resistance.
Trading Idea: Resistance at 1.4165 and 1.4200 is the closest. As the candlesticks have been good signals so far I will look for a candlestick confirmation signal, and also divergences in the RSI and Slow Stock on 60m. Targets back down to 1.4165, 1.4115, 1.4085 and 1.4055.
Tuesday, July 7, 2009
The EUR/USD, as expected, made a bearish move to 1.3875, but has since rebounded to just below resistance at 1.4000 (pair currently at 1.3970). These moves basically followed US stocks during the US session - as stock lost value midday the dollar gained strength and as the stocks moved into the positive area (barely) the dollar also lost its value. I am still overall bearish on the pair and will continue to sell at resistance, and we have several layers of resistance above current price action. Trading Idea: Nearest resistance is at 1.4000, with 1.4025 and 1.4050 above that all provide downward pressure. Be wary of a short squeeze around the lower levels especially. Shorts preferred with targets at 1.3955, 1.3905 and eventually 1.385
Monday, June 29, 2009
Consumer Confidence was better than expected rising to -25 from -28 revised. Economic Confidence rose to 73.3 from 70.2 (est. 71.0), Industrial Confidence rose to -32 from -33 and Service Confidence rose to -20 from -23. Each of the measures are off their lows reached earlier in the year. However, all remain below the higher levels reached over the last 4 or so years (see chart above).
The better data helped the EURUSD recover some of the earlier losses. The pair is currently testing the closing level from Friday at the 1.4069. The 61.8% of the move lower from Fridays high comes in 1.4065. The low reached overnight was 1.3983. The high was reached early in the trading day at the 1.4077 level. With a consolidating market, these levels become support and resistance levels.
Monday, June 22, 2009
Monday, June 15, 2009
The EURUSD tested the resistance at the 1.3888 level as per previous post and sold off to new lows on the day. However, the pair remains above the neckline of the head and shoulder formation which comes in at the 1.3809 level. A break of this level will likely lead to further selling pressure.
Monday, June 8, 2009
Trichet, known as a celeb around interest rate decisions took center stage on Thursday, releasing his economic outlook. The central bank left yet again their rates a 1%, but stated this time round that they intend to proceed with their 60 billion Euro plan to buy covered bonds on the first and secondary market. Following the decision the President mentioned that even though they do expect further contraction this year, it should be much less than the previous two quarters and the Euro-zone could see sparks of improvement during 2010. Trichet’s speech had a positive effect on the markets and the on the Euro, as the chairman stated that further aid will come to economy once economic data starts to show improvement and current policies leak through the system. The Euro also dropped last week closing with an average loss of -1.8%.
NFP Shock the Markets
When we were just starting to become accustomed to those large 500 numbers, the Bureau of Labor Statistics had to surprise and release an unbelievable change in employment figures.
As always, on the first Friday of each month, the major-market-mover is released showing how many new jobs were created or in our current situation, how many jobs were cut due to economic contraction. In addition the unemployment rate is released simultaneously to the NFP result, showing the percentage of the total labor force that is unemployed but actively seeking employment and willing to work in the US. Last week’s numbers shocked analysts, as the NFP result showed that during the month of May the employment rate had dropped by only 345k. Even though the unemployment rate didn’t show such an encouraging number climbing to a whopping 9.4%, the dramatic change in Non-farm Payrolls had a major impact on the markets increasing volatility during Friday’s session.
Where to Now?
From a fundamental and historical point of view, the markets should continue higher, especially due to Friday’s impressive NFP figure. Friday’s immediate reaction from stock traders was to drive the indices to higher ground. The result diverged by such an extent, from analyst expectations, that throughout the session stocks lost their steam as many questioned the surprisingly good report. On the Forex market the Dollar index saw a dramatic change, as the Dollar jumped against counterparts, the Dollar/Yen pair soared during Friday’s session climbing by over 200 pips. While it might seem strange that the Dollar increased against counterparts, especially as it has acted as a safe-haven over the last couple of months, recent movement came down to a combination of profit taking and higher U.S bond yields.
As mentioned above Friday’s numbers gave the markets a green light regarding the strength of the U.S economy. On one hand, currencies should continue on their normal path, which means that the GBP/USD, EUR/USD and USD/JPY could see higher ground in the long term. On the other hand, the Dollar could gain strength in the short term as investors are now rushing into the green back due to the following;
- 1. Traders are now pricing in a high chance of a rate hike, towards the end of the year- this is attracting foreign money into the Dollar.
- 2. Profit taking after Dollar counterparts presented an impressive rally.
Tuesday, June 2, 2009
The EURUSD backed off from the earlier highs caused by the the Russian/BRIC diversification out of the dollar chatter. The sell off was helped by the talk of a large seller at the top. This encouraged profit takers to enter the market. The correction back down took the pair to the 1.4211 level. From there, the EURUSD has bounced up to the high from yesterday at the 1.4246 level. The 100 week moving average is also near the level at the 1.4242 level. This level will be eyed as a key intraday level today.
The downside has the 1.4183 level as support and below that the close from yesterday at the 1.4158 level. As long as the price can stay below the 1.4246 level the price action should drift toward these levels.
Tuesday, May 26, 2009
Thursday, May 21, 2009
EUR/USD crashed through resistance yesterday and never looked back, busting upwards almost 150 pips at its peak. With the fresh higher higher and higher low we are again looking at a steady uptrend and buying opportunities. Hourlies are close to overbought territory - which is normal in a strong trend - but we will look for dips to buy as those levels cool off. Nearest support levels are at 1.3720 and 1.3665.
Trading Idea: Looking to buy a bounce off of 1.3720, tight stops, targets at 1.3775 and 1.3830.
Tuesday, May 12, 2009
EUR/USD is making a strong move for the bulls on all charts 1 hour and above, with the euro having gained roughly 700 pips in the past few weeks. Technically I am bullish on the pair in the mid-term but it is very overbought in the short-term. Pair cooled off a little bit yesterday as traders consolidated their positions overall but still has room to drop so I will be looking to buy on dips.
Trading Idea: A bounce off support near 1.3475 would provide a good opportunity to reset longs. Tight stops, targets at 1.3530, 1.3595 and 1.3645.
Thursday, May 7, 2009
Tuesday, May 5, 2009
Euro bulls are in charge as the pair made a new higher high yesterday and higher low, signaling that the uptrend is still intact. Buying on a significant support off a bounce or buying a break of resistance will be my attack.
Trading Idea: Good support at 1.3250 and 1.3200 that I would buy a bounce off of. Long targets at 1.3295, 1.3240 and 1.3395. Tight stops.
Wednesday, April 29, 2009
The 100 bar MA on the 5 minute intraday chart comes in a the 1.3219 level. The MA has been leading the price higher with one brief exception for the day (the dip in the chart where the price moves…
Saturday, April 25, 2009
The EURUSD fell through the 100 bar moving average at 1.3256 on the 5 minute chart for the first time since 1:00 PM yesterday (broke above at 1.3041). The next level of support will come in at the 1.3230 (38.2%…
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Wednesday, April 22, 2009
Friday, April 17, 2009
The European Central Bank chief Friday brushed aside the view that the euro is weak, while saying that he is "very appreciative" of U.S. policymakers sticking to their strong dollar policy.
Jean-Claude Trichet also signaled that the bank may announce extraordinary measures for financial institutions at its next monetary policy meeting on May 7.
At a seminar held in Tokyo during a visit to Japan, Trichet said the view that the euro is weak "doesn't really seem to reflect the present situation."
"When we started the euro," he said, "the euro-dollar (exchange rate) was at $1.17; at the moment I'm speaking, we are at around something like $1.31."
"That being said," Trichet continued, "I am very, I would say, appreciative, of what is said by our U.S. friends Ben Bernanke, Tim Geithner and Barack Obama that indeed a strong dollar is in the interest of the United States of America."
Commenting on monetary policy, Trichet said, "Be sure that what we will decide will fully take into account the financing structure of the euro area economy and will be fully in line with our medium-term strategy."
Most observers expect the ECB, which some critics say has been insufficiently aggressive in cutting interest rates, to take its key rate down at least another quarter percentage point to 1.00% at the May meeting.
While remaining mum on interest rate inclinations, Trichet said he expects the European economy to continue struggling in the near term.
"The year of 2009 is a very difficult year, that's absolutely clear," Trichet said, adding that the continent has, like Japan, been hit by an "acceleration of phenomena."
Recovery would likely come "in the course of 2010," he said, sparked in part by the benefits of the low price level for oil and commodities, which he called both "disinflationary and expansionary."
Addressing the possibility of further non-standard monetary measures, Trichet stressed the centrality banks would continue to play in the European context.
Compared to the U.S., with its mainly "market-based financial system," Trichet said, in Europe "banks play such a dominant role (in providing credit to companies and consumers) that non-standard measures need to be implemented - first and foremost - through intervention and with the active participat
Monday, April 13, 2009
Wednesday, April 8, 2009
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Monday, March 30, 2009
The stock market has opened down 240 points and the dollar has been the beneficiary. The EURUSD has moved to new lows of the day at the 1.3128 level. The 1.3092-1.3097 level remains key support with the 100 day MA and the 50 % retracement level both at the area. I would expect good buying against this key support level this morning.
Thursday, March 26, 2009
The EURUSD broke through the intraday resistance at the 1.3619-21 level and triggered stops to 1.3639. The market quickly reversed and the pair is now looking to test intraday support at the 1.3580 level where the 100 and 200 bar MA on the 5 minute chart is located. A break should solicit stops to that side, but given the choppy action, expect anything and everything.
Friday, March 20, 2009
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What is traded on the Foreign Exchange market?
The simple answer is money. Forex trading is the simultaneous buying of one currency and the selling of another. Currencies are traded through a broker or dealer, and are traded in pairs; for example the euro and the US dollar (EUR/USD) or the British pound and the Japanese Yen (GBP/JPY).
Because you're not buying anything physical, this kind of trading can be confusing. Think of buying a currency as buying a share in a particular country. When you buy, say, Japanese Yen, you are in effect buying a share in the Japanese economy, as the price of the currency is a direct reflection of what the market thinks about the current and future health of the Japanese economy.
In general, the exchange rate of a currency versus other currencies is a reflection of the condition of that country's economy, compared to the other countries' economies.
Unlike other financial markets like the New York Stock Exchange, the Forex spot market has neither a physical location nor a central exchange. The Forex market is considered an Over-the-Counter (OTC) or 'Interbank' market, due to the fact that the entire market is run electronically, within a network of banks, continuously over a 24-hour period.
Until the late 1990's, only the "big guys" could play this game. The initial requirement was that you could trade only if you had about ten to fifty million bucks to start with! Forex was originally intended to be used by bankers and large institutions - and not by us "little guys". However, because of the rise of the Internet, online Forex trading firms are now able to offer trading accounts to 'retail' traders like us.
All you need to get started is a computer, a high-speed Internet connection, and the information contained within this site.
BabyPips.com was created to introduce novice or beginner traders to all the essential aspects of foreign exchange, in a fun and easy-to-understand manner.
more info in BabyPips.com.....
Thursday, March 19, 2009
The break higher above the 100 day MA has been accompanied by increased volume and increased momentum, sending the price sharply higher after some tentative attempts over the last two trading days.
The break is the first major breach since January 26th when the price moved below the key MA at the 1.3583 level. On a longer term basis, the target for the pair should be the 1.3317 level which is the 38.2% fibonacci retracement of the move down from the Dec 18th high.
The catalyst for the move higher would be a better US/global economic backdrop. If the spring brings about stabilization of the US housing market, this could bring increased confidence and slow the US employment situation. This would give banks increased confidence. As a result, the dollar would be less of a safe haven currency and the EURO would benefit.
Regardless of the dynamics for the whys, the break higher today is significant for the pair from a techinical basis.
Thursday, March 12, 2009
Looking at a short term USD/JPY chart on the 1 hour, the pair is currently moving towards the 38.2% retracement level near 97.05. Above this level 100 & 200 hour moving averages come in near 98.00. The next area of resistance is 100 pips away at 99.00 area.
The longer term shows a seemly different picture. Since early March, the pair has been trending towards the 93.40 level which in the past has had multiple tests going back to November of 2008. The pair will need to break below the 95.50 area to give light to another test of this major support in the 93.40 level.
Its always a good idea to review the near term trends in the shorter charts and then to check the big picture perspective in the longer term charts like the daily.
Thursday, March 5, 2009
There is a report of Japan exporters taking advantage of the high USDJPY and are sellers in the USDJPY. Exporters to the US sell goods in USD and at some point have to sell those dollars and remit earnings into JPY. The 100.00 level has attracted more selling and we are now seeing an acceleration in the selling.
The pair is fast approaching the 100 hour MA which comes in at the 98.20 level. We will be watching the level this morning.
Wednesday, February 25, 2009
Monday, February 9, 2009
GBPUSD broke above the trendline overnight. Moved GBPUSD higher
The GBPUSD broke through the trendline resistance at the 1.4805 level on Friday, moving to a high of 1.4843, but came back down and closed at that level. This was a less than convincing break of a trendline from October.
Today, the market was able to move more convincingling through the level. The high today has come in at 1.4977 . The 1.5000 level will provide “big figure” resistance. The price was last above this level on January 9th. 1.5372 is the high price for 2009. This will also be a target. Finally the 100 day MA comes in at 1.5597. All these levels will act as resistance.
On the downside, the 1.4874 level will act as intraday support. This was the high near the opening today. Below that, the key level is 1.4805 level where we closed on Friday and where the trendline was originally broken on Friday.