Tuesday, July 28, 2009


Pair continued to stay in its tight range yesterday. We saw a brief spike to just below 1.4300 yesterday but it was quickly tempered by a fast 100 pip drop. We do have a bearish divergence in the 4h RSI, but the slow stoch is nearing oversold levels as well, so the trade is not confirmed. I am looking for a little bit of a further drop to get the slow stoch to oversold levels, then a rise back up for a good alignment of slow stoch and RSI at overbought levels, while price action is near resistance on 4 hour charts for a sell opportunity.

Trading Idea: Looking for slow stoch to return to overbought levels just as RSI touches yellow resistance and price hits resistance near 1.4275. Short targets at 1.4215, 1.4170 and 1.4130. Would consider buying on a dip to oversold on the slow stoch if price is near support as well, in the short-term.

Friday, July 24, 2009

Eurusd Heavy Selling

It doesn’t get much more picture perfect then yesterday’s signal - the pair gave us long upward wick followed by a bearish engulfing candlestick - two major reversal signs. If that wasn’t enough we had a bearish divergence on both the RSI and Slow Stoch. All targets were hit within 4 hours. But that was yesterday. On to today! After the major rally in the USD we saw the pair bounce off of oversold on the RSI, just touching 30 before rallying back up. I will continue to be bearish on the pair and look for selling opps near resistance.

Trading Idea: Resistance at 1.4165 and 1.4200 is the closest. As the candlesticks have been good signals so far I will look for a candlestick confirmation signal, and also divergences in the RSI and Slow Stock on 60m. Targets back down to 1.4165, 1.4115, 1.4085 and 1.4055.

Tuesday, July 7, 2009


The EUR/USD, as expected, made a bearish move to 1.3875, but has since rebounded to just below resistance at 1.4000 (pair currently at 1.3970). These moves basically followed US stocks during the US session - as stock lost value midday the dollar gained strength and as the stocks moved into the positive area (barely) the dollar also lost its value. I am still overall bearish on the pair and will continue to sell at resistance, and we have several layers of resistance above current price action. Trading Idea: Nearest resistance is at 1.4000, with 1.4025 and 1.4050 above that all provide downward pressure. Be wary of a short squeeze around the lower levels especially. Shorts preferred with targets at 1.3955, 1.3905 and eventually 1.385