Friday, September 25, 2009

Thursday, September 24, 2009


The dollar gained some strength yesterday after bears got some news that made them willing to bet on the dollar again. Specifically the fact that the government is going to continue to extend their spending programs is news that the US economy is not as peachy as previously though took away some of the risk appetite. It wasn’t much in the way of news but I personally think the EUR/USD was overbought and investors were just looking for a reason to take some profits and correct the price a little bit. Fundamentally nothing much changed, technically we saw a drop to the 23.6% fibonacci retracement level at 1.4686, which was also where the rising trendline (in blue below) happened to be. The pair has found a little support there but I will look to sell a break of that blue trendline or a failure below 1.4800. A “failure” of 1.4800 means the price goes up toward that level but gets stopped by resistance and we see some sort of bearish reversal confirmation signal (candlestick, etc.).
Trading Idea: Looking to sell a break of blue trend support line currently at 1.4710 but rising, or sell a failure below 1.4800. From 1.48 short targets are 1.4730, 1.4690, 1.4655 and 1.4620.

Tuesday, September 15, 2009

G/U may up

Today talk about G/U up to 1.6446, 1.6547

Sunday, September 13, 2009

EURUSD Make Retracement

Eurusd making retracement today fall to 1.4500 to 1.4480..before go higher again...

Friday, September 11, 2009


What a week! EUR/USD has rallied hard against most fundamental expectations, causing many to re-evaluate what these latest bullish signals mean for the long-term. Some experts say this is the start of an inflationary period for the dollar and this is how the year will end (with dollar weakness). Others believe this is an extinction burst before we see a double-dip on the EUR/USD, US stocks and the world economy in general. So as short-term, technical traders what do we do? We look at the charts and we stick to what we know! And what we know is to trade with the trend. The EUR/USD has made higher highs and higher lows over the past several days so the trend is up. Currently the pair is knocking on the door of 1.4600.

Trading Idea: Trend is up and I am looking for buying opportunities. I would buy a sustained break of 1.4615 or a dip with candlestick confirmation to support above 1.4500. At 1.4500 targets are 1.4555 and 1.4615. With a break above 1.4615 I’m looking for 1.4660 and 1.4695.

Tuesday, September 8, 2009


Well it looks like patience might pay off after I delayed the signal until the start of New York session. I was waiting for some signs as to direction of the pair after the Labor Day weekend in the States and direction is what I got. Extreme volatility in the pair made it jump up almost 200 pips as it made fresh 2009 highs peaking just about 1.4500. Interesting to note that the US stock markets did not share in the extreme rally (though I think US stocks are overpriced already) which has been the pattern of late with risk aversion being the main theme. With gold flirting with 1000 and oil up to 70 USD/barrel this could be the beginning of a serious inflation problem for the greenback. With the new higher high in place I will look to buy dips near support though with the pair so overbought I would also look to sell another pierce upward.r

Trading Idea: Nearest support is at 1.4400 and then 1.4365. I will look to set longs on a bounce off of these support areas with targets at 1.4455, 1.4495 and 1.4525. With the RSI heavily overbought (was at almost 90 for hourlies) I would also look to sell another run into resistance between 1.4520-1.4550, with short targets back down to 1.4425.

Monday, September 7, 2009

In holiday type trading (US is off for Labor Day national holiday), the EURUSD has nevertheless been able to continue it’s move higher from Friday’s afternoon rebound. The gains have been attributed to an increased demand for “riskier currency pairs”. German Factory Orders also showed stronger output as they rose by 3.5% MoM after a 4.5% gain in June. It also was the 5th increase in a row.

The pair has moved above the trendline resistance at the 1.4333 level. This trendline will be eyed for support today. On the upside, the next hurdle will be the 1.4377 (high from last week) and 1.4386 (trendline off the high from August 5th).

Thursday, September 3, 2009

Some mixed signals coming off the EUR/USD yesterday as the pair charged through resistance at 1.4255, signaling that the euro bulls are not going down without a fight. After the third bounce off support around 1.4200 the pair jumped 100 pips in 3 hours before easing off just below 1.4300. This latest thrust signals possible strength left in the Euro but I expected the upside to be limited by resistance at 1.4300 and the intersection of two trend resistance lines (yellow on chart below) just above 1.4300.

Trading Idea: Indicators are mixed, but I would look to sell with a tight stop in the 1.4315 area with an eye back down to 1.4260 and 1.4225.

Wednesday, September 2, 2009