EURUSD HIGH

Next week Eurusd will be higher..
Test for 1.46xx level

NON Farm Payrolls

This Friday the markets look to the US as the latest Non Farm Payrolls data is released. Nothing has the power to trigger big movements in the Forex market the way Non Farm Payrolls can!

Last month, in the two hours around the Non Farm Payrolls announcement the EUR/USD moved 160 pips. Large movements like this are the reason why Non Farm Payrolls (NFP) is the talk of the Forex market.

Before Non Farm Payrolls there are two important announcements you can use to try to figure out where the dollar might be heading this week:

1. The latest US interest rates are announced on Wednesday. Rates are expected to remain on hold, and any change could trigger a shock to the Forex market.
2. The ADP employment change result is also released on Wednesday. This is the most important indicator in advance of Non Farm Payrolls. It can be used to predict the NFP result and is a trigger to action in the dollar all by itself.

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Short for yesterday was stopped out for a small loss yesterday as US GDP grew by 3.5% – more than expected and technically signaling an end to the US recession. There is still a lot of weakness in the US economy and much of that growth was driven by government programs/spending, but US stocks rallied nonetheless driving the EUR/USD past resistance levels. I talk about this a lot recently but you have to watch US stocks closely in this risk-appetite driven markets. Strong US stocks signal risk appetite which means the higher yielding Euro will perform better than the record-low interest rate USD will perform poorly. Yesterday was the strong day for US stock markets in 3 months – and the EUR/USD rallied over 100 pips.
Currently the pair is consolidating its gains in a tight 1.4820-1.4855 range which could make for a nice breakout.
Trading Idea: On the 4-hour chart we have a nice flagpole with a consolidation pattern forming in a flag pattern. Bias is to the upside. I will look to buy a sustained break of 1.4865 or, if the 60M candlestick is bullish buy near the bottom at 1.4820. Long targets would be 1.4895, 1.4925 and 1.4955. On a sustained break below 1.4815 my tendency would be to sell a rally for a re-challenge of 1.4750.
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TARGET COMPLETED

EURUSD SUPPORTED AT 1.4725

Eurusd reach to supported 1.4725
before go for Long...

EURUSD Hold Above 1.5015

If Eurusd hold above 1.5015 it maybe go higher to 1.5085

Sometimes you just have to take a step back from the charts and think about what all those little candlesticks mean, and right now the dollar bulls and bears are locked in a struggle to determine the future of the currency. On the USD index charts (not shown) we can see the USD is against several different support levels vs. various currencies, and the EUR/USD itself is flirting with strong resistance at 1.4820. For our shorter term purposes the waters are nearly as murky – if you back out to the 4h chart you can see a giant V shape from late Septemeber to present, with a slight bullish bias. Though I am bearish in the long term, I will put my personal feelings aside and trade with the bullish, short-term trend.
Trading Idea: looking to buy near support above 1.4725. Long targets at 1.4755, 1.4790 and 1.4820.

EURUSD up and away

Picture perfect signal yesterday as all targets were hit for 75 pips. Would have been more but the I entered after the hammer signal on the 1-hour chart that pierced our entry at 1.4650. I circled the hammer candlestick on blue on the chart below so you all could see it. Nice formation, long wick pierced lows/support and body closed above intraday lows. From there it was more or less straight up. I keep saying it but I think the USD is overbought. But it doesn’t matter since we trade the trade and the trend is up. Another higher higher and volatility in the market seems to be decreasing which is a sign the trend has strength. Ultimately I will look for the pair to re-challenge the yearly high at 1.4850. Whether or not it will break that level I don’t know.
Trading Idea: Trend is up and I am looking to buy dips on a failure of support at 1.4720. Long targets at 1.4755, 1.4790 and 1.4825.

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EURUSD

The dollar gained some strength yesterday after bears got some news that made them willing to bet on the dollar again. Specifically the fact that the government is going to continue to extend their spending programs is news that the US economy is not as peachy as previously though took away some of the risk appetite. It wasn’t much in the way of news but I personally think the EUR/USD was overbought and investors were just looking for a reason to take some profits and correct the price a little bit. Fundamentally nothing much changed, technically we saw a drop to the 23.6% fibonacci retracement level at 1.4686, which was also where the rising trendline (in blue below) happened to be. The pair has found a little support there but I will look to sell a break of that blue trendline or a failure below 1.4800. A “failure” of 1.4800 means the price goes up toward that level but gets stopped by resistance and we see some sort of bearish reversal confirmation signal (candlestick, etc.).
Trading Idea: Looking to sell a break of blue trend support line currently at 1.4710 but rising, or sell a failure below 1.4800. From 1.48 short targets are 1.4730, 1.4690, 1.4655 and 1.4620.

EURUSD Make Retracement

Eurusd making retracement today fall to 1.4500 to 1.4480..before go higher again...

Strong EUR/USD Close Should Signal Euro Buying

If EUR/USD sustains its current momentum up, Jim McCormick of Citigroup says it's likely time to start buying euros. The ECB's move to quantitative easing "should be good for what has been a very good risk environment," he said, especially as measures of positioning show the market is thus far under-invested in risk trades. He sees no near term reason to sell emerging market and commodity currencies.

EURUSD HIGH

The break higher above the 100 day MA has been accompanied by increased volume and increased momentum, sending the price sharply higher after some tentative attempts over the last two trading days.

The break is the first major breach since January 26th when the price moved below the key MA at the 1.3583 level. On a longer term basis, the target for the pair should be the 1.3317 level which is the 38.2% fibonacci retracement of the move down from the Dec 18th high.

The catalyst for the move higher would be a better US/global economic backdrop. If the spring brings about stabilization of the US housing market, this could bring increased confidence and slow the US employment situation. This would give banks increased confidence. As a result, the dollar would be less of a safe haven currency and the EURO would benefit.

Regardless of the dynamics for the whys, the break higher today is significant for the pair from a techinical basis.

USD/JPY

Looking at a short term USD/JPY chart on the 1 hour, the pair is currently moving towards the 38.2% retracement level near 97.05. Above this level 100 & 200 hour moving averages come in near 98.00. The next area of resistance is 100 pips away at 99.00 area.

USDJPY under pressure as well

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There is a report of Japan exporters taking advantage of the high USDJPY and are sellers in the USDJPY. Exporters to the US sell goods in USD and at some point have to sell those dollars and remit earnings into JPY. The 100.00 level has attracted more selling and we are now seeing an acceleration in the selling.

The pair is fast approaching the 100 hour MA which comes in at the 98.20 level. We will be watching the level this morning.

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