Sunday, August 30, 2009

EUR/USD was able to break through support (and last week’s signals) of 1.4300 but has not managed to do much since then, only getting down to around 1.4280. It has since zig-zagged in a tight range between 1.4280-1.4315. In the short, short term I expect this range to continue (might be good for some scalping) but my bias remains bullish and I will look for buying opportunities near support and on dips.

Trading Idea: Pair is right on (weak) support of 1.4280 right now, better support not seen until trend support just below 1.4250 where I will look for buying opportunities. Long targets back up to 1.4300, 1.4345 and 1.4395. If support is broken look for a re-challenge of 1.4200.

Thursday, August 27, 2009

It has been a fairly predictable week (knock on wood!) for the EUR/USD pair, with price action more or less mimicking signals. Yesterday we saw the major rise, as expected to a new high of 1.44050. Bears quickly stepped in at that point to temper the rally but not after the pair had gained nearly 200 pips in under 4 hours! The pair then retreated to 1.4338 - the 38.2% fibonacci retracement of the rally. Thanks to this new high I am freshly bullish, and I would prefer to buy on dips near support.

Trading Idea: We have good support to buy around above 1.4300, which is near the 50 and 61.8 fib retracement levels of the latest rally. From there long targets are at 1.4345, 1.4385 and 1.4445


Bears fought back today (on positive US data), driving down the EUR/USD almost 150 pips in just 6 hours. Pair did rise steadily for the first hours of the day but hit a wall of support at 1.4350 that sent exchange rates plummeting. There is currently disagreement among economists whether positive US economic data will help or hurt the US dollar (if you haven’t read my article here on risk aversion and confusion over fundamentals). Today it definitely helped the dollar. However, as long as the pair stays above 1.4170 I am net bullish so I will look for buying opportunities, and sell any bounce off of 1.4350.

Trading Idea: Look for buying opportunities between support zones at 1.4175-1.4200. Long targets at 1.4270 and 1.4345.

Tuesday, August 25, 2009


Good 100 pips off of yesterday’s signal as the pair bounced hard off of support just above 1.4250 and rallied for 100 pips to 1.4360. Momentum was not sustained however and the pair quickly fell back down to 1.4280 levels. Fundamentals are mixed (see my earlier post about how different investors are interpreting the news out of the US in different ways, causing volatility) and traders are looking for direction - which makes me think we will see some tight ranges and zig-zagging over the next couple of days and then possibly a big break either up or down, so keep stops relatively tight.

Trading Idea: Still looking to go long, preferably near trend support currently around 1.4275, though I will try to catch it on the way up or down around 1.4250. Long targets at 1.4345 and 1.4385.


Yesterday’s buy signal at 1.4250 was never reached, though it came close when price action dipped to 1.4279 before jumping back up 60 pips. Today I am looking for more of the same with signals pointing towards a long between 1.4250-1.4275. It is really taking a lot of determination for me not to sell into one of these rallies as I think the fundamentals don’t support the latest Euro strength, but if I was going to sell it would be up around 1.4450. In the short-term I will continue to buy dips near support, as the up-trend appears to be intact. We do have the US consumer confidence report coming out at 14:00 GMT and though I don’t expect it to move the market much I will nonetheless sit out for the few hours hours around the event risk.

Trading Idea: Longs favored on dips near support above 1.4250. Tight stops, targets at 1.4300, 1.4345, 1.4380 and eventually 1.4445.

Sunday, August 23, 2009

EURUSD bounces of target support at 1.4272

The EURUSD fell through the support level at the 1.4304 to 1.4312 level and headed toward the target support level at the 1.4272 level ( . The low reached 1.4276 and has bounced back toward the 1.4300 level again. The downside remains favored with upside most likely contained by the 1.4304 to 1.4312 level. I would not expect the price to move back above this level, however. Look for seller against the level as the story of higher stocks and higher dollar takes hold.

Wednesday, August 19, 2009

EURUSD make retracement

First target was hit from yesterday’s signal but the pair quickly reversed as the stock market made up some its losses. Pair was able to rise to resistance at 1.41750 before dropping back down to sub 1.4150 levels. My bias is still lower below 1.4200, which is a good resistance level and also the 50% fibonacci retracement from 8/13-/817. RSI signals are mixed.

Trading Idea: Looking for selling opportunity below 1.4200 for a return to 1.4105, 1.4060 and 1.4015.

Monday, August 17, 2009


Starting with the daily chart the EUR/USD is resting on major daily trend support dating back to May of this year, however it is not oversold at all on the dailies. On the hourly charts the pair is skipping off of support around 1.4140 as the pair is also skimming 30 (oversold) on the 60M chart. While the mid-term may be mixed, in the near future I am looking for a return down to 1.4100.

Trading Idea: Looking to sell near resistance currently around 1.4200 for a retest of 1.4100. Tight stops.

Friday, August 14, 2009

Eurusd Heavy Selling

After it made rally this week today Eurusd make retracement..
maybe nextweek low..

Tuesday, August 11, 2009