EURUSD LOW NEXT WEEK?

Next Week EUR/USD May Up or Down

The EURUSD has had one hourly bar close below the 100 hour MA today (1st hourly close below the moving average since 4:00 ET on October 12th).  This move was reversed in the next hour. However, 4 separate hourly bars have moved below this key moving average today. Is this an indication of a further correction for the EURUSD?
For those looking that way, the market did have a double top at the 1.4967 level yesterday and today.  That often leads to some selling and indeed we did see that today.  For the bulls, the move below and back above the 100 hour MA is signficant especially since the market has not been below thay key moving average since the 12th.  Another thing in the favor of the bulls is the inability to take out the lows from Wednesday or Thursday.  Those levels came in at 1.4839 and 1.4842 respectively

EURUSD HIGH

What a week! EUR/USD has rallied hard against most fundamental expectations, causing many to re-evaluate what these latest bullish signals mean for the long-term. Some experts say this is the start of an inflationary period for the dollar and this is how the year will end (with dollar weakness). Others believe this is an extinction burst before we see a double-dip on the EUR/USD, US stocks and the world economy in general. So as short-term, technical traders what do we do? We look at the charts and we stick to what we know! And what we know is to trade with the trend. The EUR/USD has made higher highs and higher lows over the past several days so the trend is up. Currently the pair is knocking on the door of 1.4600.

Trading Idea: Trend is up and I am looking for buying opportunities. I would buy a sustained break of 1.4615 or a dip with candlestick confirmation to support above 1.4500. At 1.4500 targets are 1.4555 and 1.4615. With a break above 1.4615 I’m looking for 1.4660 and 1.4695.

EURUSD BEARS

Bears fought back today (on positive US data), driving down the EUR/USD almost 150 pips in just 6 hours. Pair did rise steadily for the first hours of the day but hit a wall of support at 1.4350 that sent exchange rates plummeting. There is currently disagreement among economists whether positive US economic data will help or hurt the US dollar (if you haven’t read my article here on risk aversion and confusion over fundamentals). Today it definitely helped the dollar. However, as long as the pair stays above 1.4170 I am net bullish so I will look for buying opportunities, and sell any bounce off of 1.4350.

Trading Idea: Look for buying opportunities between support zones at 1.4175-1.4200. Long targets at 1.4270 and 1.4345.

EURUSD bounces of target support at 1.4272

The EURUSD fell through the support level at the 1.4304 to 1.4312 level and headed toward the target support level at the 1.4272 level ( . The low reached 1.4276 and has bounced back toward the 1.4300 level again. The downside remains favored with upside most likely contained by the 1.4304 to 1.4312 level. I would not expect the price to move back above this level, however. Look for seller against the level as the story of higher stocks and higher dollar takes hold.

EURUSD LOW

Starting with the daily chart the EUR/USD is resting on major daily trend support dating back to May of this year, however it is not oversold at all on the dailies. On the hourly charts the pair is skipping off of support around 1.4140 as the pair is also skimming 30 (oversold) on the 60M chart. While the mid-term may be mixed, in the near future I am looking for a return down to 1.4100.

Trading Idea: Looking to sell near resistance currently around 1.4200 for a retest of 1.4100. Tight stops.

EURUSD make retracement

EURUSD

The EUR/USD, as expected, made a bearish move to 1.3875, but has since rebounded to just below resistance at 1.4000 (pair currently at 1.3970). These moves basically followed US stocks during the US session - as stock lost value midday the dollar gained strength and as the stocks moved into the positive area (barely) the dollar also lost its value. I am still overall bearish on the pair and will continue to sell at resistance, and we have several layers of resistance above current price action. Trading Idea: Nearest resistance is at 1.4000, with 1.4025 and 1.4050 above that all provide downward pressure. Be wary of a short squeeze around the lower levels especially. Shorts preferred with targets at 1.3955, 1.3905 and eventually 1.385

EURUSD UP

Consumer Confidence was better than expected rising to -25 from -28 revised. Economic Confidence rose to 73.3 from 70.2 (est. 71.0), Industrial Confidence rose to -32 from -33 and Service Confidence rose to -20 from -23. Each of the measures are off their lows reached earlier in the year. However, all remain below the higher levels reached over the last 4 or so years (see chart above).

The better data helped the EURUSD recover some of the earlier losses. The pair is currently testing the closing level from Friday at the 1.4069. The 61.8% of the move lower from Fridays high comes in 1.4065. The low reached overnight was 1.3983. The high was reached early in the trading day at the 1.4077 level. With a consolidating market, these levels become support and resistance levels.

EURUSD OVERBOUGHT

Overbought levels appear to be causing the EUR/USD to stall out on the charts after the Memorial Day holiday in the States on Monday. On the daily the price action is just below 70 on the RSI and on the 4-hour it has just dipped below 70. Either way the pair has been pushing overbought all last week and is due for some consolidation so I will be looking to buy bounces off of support. Trading Idea: Nearest support is at 1.3895, however use extremely tight stops if you trade this level as a break below could spell much more significant drops. A more conservative support zone is around 1.3800 with targets at 1.3845, 1.3895 and 1.3935

EURUSD HIGH

EUR/USD is making a strong move for the bulls on all charts 1 hour and above, with the euro having gained roughly 700 pips in the past few weeks. Technically I am bullish on the pair in the mid-term but it is very overbought in the short-term. Pair cooled off a little bit yesterday as traders consolidated their positions overall but still has room to drop so I will be looking to buy on dips.

Trading Idea: A bounce off support near 1.3475 would provide a good opportunity to reset longs. Tight stops, targets at 1.3530, 1.3595 and 1.3645.

Strong EUR/USD Close Should Signal Euro Buying

If EUR/USD sustains its current momentum up, Jim McCormick of Citigroup says it's likely time to start buying euros. The ECB's move to quantitative easing "should be good for what has been a very good risk environment," he said, especially as measures of positioning show the market is thus far under-invested in risk trades. He sees no near term reason to sell emerging market and commodity currencies.

EURUSD

Euro bulls are in charge as the pair made a new higher high yesterday and higher low, signaling that the uptrend is still intact. Buying on a significant support off a bounce or buying a break of resistance will be my attack.

Trading Idea: Good support at 1.3250 and 1.3200 that I would buy a bounce off of. Long targets at 1.3295, 1.3240 and 1.3395. Tight stops.

G/u not down but up

Ternyata silap sinyalnya yang down sudah up,kena stop loss lagi..
semestinya tadi ...
Buy at 1.4439 and TP at 1.5700....
Ternyata perlu banyak belajar lagi..lagi dan lagi
teknikal analisis tak boleh dipakai sewaktu ini..ekonomi nak runtuh..
kena pakai foundalmental yaa pulak
soory newbie..tolong ajari...

G/U DOWN

Short now from 4439. Stop 4505.

The last 5-wave rally (15 min chart) appears to complete a larger 3-wave rally (see 1hr chart below). My MA is rolling over so that is my signal.

That said, a 3-wave decline that does not break 4300, and especially if it holds above 4150, leaves open the possibility of a dramatic move to the up-side to break the trend-line on the weekly chart, because of the 3rd-of-3rd wave phenomenon. I will try to alert that possibility here if it develops in the market.