The stock market has opened down 240 points and the dollar has been the beneficiary. The EURUSD has moved to new lows of the day at the 1.3128 level. The 1.3092-1.3097 level remains key support with the 100 day MA and the 50 % retracement level both at the area. I would expect good buying against this key support level this morning.
Monday, March 30, 2009
Thursday, March 26, 2009
The EURUSD broke through the intraday resistance at the 1.3619-21 level and triggered stops to 1.3639. The market quickly reversed and the pair is now looking to test intraday support at the 1.3580 level where the 100 and 200 bar MA on the 5 minute chart is located. A break should solicit stops to that side, but given the choppy action, expect anything and everything.
Friday, March 20, 2009
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Thursday, March 19, 2009
The break higher above the 100 day MA has been accompanied by increased volume and increased momentum, sending the price sharply higher after some tentative attempts over the last two trading days.
The break is the first major breach since January 26th when the price moved below the key MA at the 1.3583 level. On a longer term basis, the target for the pair should be the 1.3317 level which is the 38.2% fibonacci retracement of the move down from the Dec 18th high.
The catalyst for the move higher would be a better US/global economic backdrop. If the spring brings about stabilization of the US housing market, this could bring increased confidence and slow the US employment situation. This would give banks increased confidence. As a result, the dollar would be less of a safe haven currency and the EURO would benefit.
Regardless of the dynamics for the whys, the break higher today is significant for the pair from a techinical basis.
Thursday, March 12, 2009
Looking at a short term USD/JPY chart on the 1 hour, the pair is currently moving towards the 38.2% retracement level near 97.05. Above this level 100 & 200 hour moving averages come in near 98.00. The next area of resistance is 100 pips away at 99.00 area.
The longer term shows a seemly different picture. Since early March, the pair has been trending towards the 93.40 level which in the past has had multiple tests going back to November of 2008. The pair will need to break below the 95.50 area to give light to another test of this major support in the 93.40 level.
Its always a good idea to review the near term trends in the shorter charts and then to check the big picture perspective in the longer term charts like the daily.
Thursday, March 5, 2009
There is a report of Japan exporters taking advantage of the high USDJPY and are sellers in the USDJPY. Exporters to the US sell goods in USD and at some point have to sell those dollars and remit earnings into JPY. The 100.00 level has attracted more selling and we are now seeing an acceleration in the selling.
The pair is fast approaching the 100 hour MA which comes in at the 98.20 level. We will be watching the level this morning.