Thursday, March 19, 2009


The break higher above the 100 day MA has been accompanied by increased volume and increased momentum, sending the price sharply higher after some tentative attempts over the last two trading days.

The break is the first major breach since January 26th when the price moved below the key MA at the 1.3583 level. On a longer term basis, the target for the pair should be the 1.3317 level which is the 38.2% fibonacci retracement of the move down from the Dec 18th high.

The catalyst for the move higher would be a better US/global economic backdrop. If the spring brings about stabilization of the US housing market, this could bring increased confidence and slow the US employment situation. This would give banks increased confidence. As a result, the dollar would be less of a safe haven currency and the EURO would benefit.

Regardless of the dynamics for the whys, the break higher today is significant for the pair from a techinical basis.

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