Friday, October 30, 2009

Short for yesterday was stopped out for a small loss yesterday as US GDP grew by 3.5% – more than expected and technically signaling an end to the US recession. There is still a lot of weakness in the US economy and much of that growth was driven by government programs/spending, but US stocks rallied nonetheless driving the EUR/USD past resistance levels. I talk about this a lot recently but you have to watch US stocks closely in this risk-appetite driven markets. Strong US stocks signal risk appetite which means the higher yielding Euro will perform better than the record-low interest rate USD will perform poorly. Yesterday was the strong day for US stock markets in 3 months – and the EUR/USD rallied over 100 pips.
Currently the pair is consolidating its gains in a tight 1.4820-1.4855 range which could make for a nice breakout.
Trading Idea: On the 4-hour chart we have a nice flagpole with a consolidation pattern forming in a flag pattern. Bias is to the upside. I will look to buy a sustained break of 1.4865 or, if the 60M candlestick is bullish buy near the bottom at 1.4820. Long targets would be 1.4895, 1.4925 and 1.4955. On a sustained break below 1.4815 my tendency would be to sell a rally for a re-challenge of 1.4750.
Nice weekend to all...blogger..Please smile at nuff..ha22

Thursday, October 29, 2009


EUR/USD Target to 1.4827 and 1.4840 Level

tonight 1.4827 and 1.4840 level
are next upside

Wednesday, October 28, 2009


Eurusd reach to supported 1.4725
before go for Long...

Monday, October 26, 2009

EURUSD Hold Above 1.5015

If Eurusd hold above 1.5015 it maybe go higher to 1.5085

Thursday, October 22, 2009


The EURUSD attempted to push lower yesterday but found support at 1.4943, whipsawed to the upside, topped at 1.5037 and closed at 1.5025, indicating bullish momentum remains strong and downside corrections might be over at this phase. My  bullish momentum still move perfectly inside the bullish channel with the lower line provide good technical support area. The bias remains bullish in nearest term still targeting 1.5080 and 1.5140. Key support level remains at 1.4950/60 area and the lower line of the bullish channel. Short position is not recommended.

Tuesday, October 20, 2009


Today.. Earlier signal at 1.4920 was never tripped as EUR/USD blasted through resistance on the 60M chart without flinching. I have to admit I am not real wild on buying the EUR/USD at this level. The pair has been very closely tied with US stocks, and those stocks remain overbought and are in need of profit-taking. However, with the Fed seeing no signs of easing back on the money printing it is feasible we will see continued USD weakness. Therefore, I have to go with the tried and true and continue trading with the trend, which means buying on dips near support. Trading Idea: We have support at 1.4950 (23.6% fib), 1.4930 (38.2%) and above 1.4900 in the area of the 50% retracement and former support. Starting from 1.4900 we have targets at 1.4940, 1.4970 and 1.5000.

Saturday, October 17, 2009

Next Week EUR/USD May Up or Down

The EURUSD has had one hourly bar close below the 100 hour MA today (1st hourly close below the moving average since 4:00 ET on October 12th).  This move was reversed in the next hour. However, 4 separate hourly bars have moved below this key moving average today. Is this an indication of a further correction for the EURUSD?
For those looking that way, the market did have a double top at the 1.4967 level yesterday and today.  That often leads to some selling and indeed we did see that today.  For the bulls, the move below and back above the 100 hour MA is signficant especially since the market has not been below thay key moving average since the 12th.  Another thing in the favor of the bulls is the inability to take out the lows from Wednesday or Thursday.  Those levels came in at 1.4839 and 1.4842 respectively

Tuesday, October 13, 2009

Sometimes you just have to take a step back from the charts and think about what all those little candlesticks mean, and right now the dollar bulls and bears are locked in a struggle to determine the future of the currency. On the USD index charts (not shown) we can see the USD is against several different support levels vs. various currencies, and the EUR/USD itself is flirting with strong resistance at 1.4820. For our shorter term purposes the waters are nearly as murky – if you back out to the 4h chart you can see a giant V shape from late Septemeber to present, with a slight bullish bias. Though I am bearish in the long term, I will put my personal feelings aside and trade with the bullish, short-term trend.
Trading Idea: looking to buy near support above 1.4725. Long targets at 1.4755, 1.4790 and 1.4820.

Sunday, October 11, 2009

Thursday, October 8, 2009

EURUSD up and away

Picture perfect signal yesterday as all targets were hit for 75 pips. Would have been more but the I entered after the hammer signal on the 1-hour chart that pierced our entry at 1.4650. I circled the hammer candlestick on blue on the chart below so you all could see it. Nice formation, long wick pierced lows/support and body closed above intraday lows. From there it was more or less straight up. I keep saying it but I think the USD is overbought. But it doesn’t matter since we trade the trade and the trend is up. Another higher higher and volatility in the market seems to be decreasing which is a sign the trend has strength. Ultimately I will look for the pair to re-challenge the yearly high at 1.4850. Whether or not it will break that level I don’t know.
Trading Idea: Trend is up and I am looking to buy dips on a failure of support at 1.4720. Long targets at 1.4755, 1.4790 and 1.4825.

Monday, October 5, 2009


And right now the bulls are winning. A mixture of fundamental news helped to boost  the Euro over the dollar, including 1) the Aussie government unexpectedly raising interest rate led to an increase in USD shorting and 2) a story was published in the UK that said several governments, including China and Russia were looking to partially replace the USD as the reserve currency for crude within 9 years. These news pieces provided the extra boost to raise the EUR/USD past key resistance at 1.4680 and up to another key resistance at 1.4720. The Euro is still overbought against the dollar but there is big money involved here that is out of our control, therefore we will take what the market gives us. I would look for an opportunity to short around 1.4725 if the failure was present or the candlestick was strong enough, but at this point I have to also start looking for buying opportunities, first at support around 1.4650. Until we get some more direction from the markets, this might be a good day to sit out and wait for some more news :).