Some mixed signals coming off the EUR/USD yesterday as the pair charged through resistance at 1.4255, signaling that the euro bulls are not going down without a fight. After the third bounce off support around 1.4200 the pair jumped 100 pips in 3 hours before easing off just below 1.4300. This latest thrust signals possible strength left in the Euro but I expected the upside to be limited by resistance at 1.4300 and the intersection of two trend resistance lines (yellow on chart below) just above 1.4300.

Trading Idea: Indicators are mixed, but I would look to sell with a tight stop in the 1.4315 area with an eye back down to 1.4260 and 1.4225.

EURUSD MIXED

Good 100 pips off of yesterday’s signal as the pair bounced hard off of support just above 1.4250 and rallied for 100 pips to 1.4360. Momentum was not sustained however and the pair quickly fell back down to 1.4280 levels. Fundamentals are mixed (see my earlier post about how different investors are interpreting the news out of the US in different ways, causing volatility) and traders are looking for direction - which makes me think we will see some tight ranges and zig-zagging over the next couple of days and then possibly a big break either up or down, so keep stops relatively tight.

Trading Idea: Still looking to go long, preferably near trend support currently around 1.4275, though I will try to catch it on the way up or down around 1.4250. Long targets at 1.4345 and 1.4385.

Eurusd

Yesterday’s buy signal at 1.4250 was never reached, though it came close when price action dipped to 1.4279 before jumping back up 60 pips. Today I am looking for more of the same with signals pointing towards a long between 1.4250-1.4275. It is really taking a lot of determination for me not to sell into one of these rallies as I think the fundamentals don’t support the latest Euro strength, but if I was going to sell it would be up around 1.4450. In the short-term I will continue to buy dips near support, as the up-trend appears to be intact. We do have the US consumer confidence report coming out at 14:00 GMT and though I don’t expect it to move the market much I will nonetheless sit out for the few hours hours around the event risk.

Trading Idea: Longs favored on dips near support above 1.4250. Tight stops, targets at 1.4300, 1.4345, 1.4380 and eventually 1.4445.

EURUSD bounces of target support at 1.4272

The EURUSD fell through the support level at the 1.4304 to 1.4312 level and headed toward the target support level at the 1.4272 level ( . The low reached 1.4276 and has bounced back toward the 1.4300 level again. The downside remains favored with upside most likely contained by the 1.4304 to 1.4312 level. I would not expect the price to move back above this level, however. Look for seller against the level as the story of higher stocks and higher dollar takes hold.

EURUSD LOW

Starting with the daily chart the EUR/USD is resting on major daily trend support dating back to May of this year, however it is not oversold at all on the dailies. On the hourly charts the pair is skipping off of support around 1.4140 as the pair is also skimming 30 (oversold) on the 60M chart. While the mid-term may be mixed, in the near future I am looking for a return down to 1.4100.

Trading Idea: Looking to sell near resistance currently around 1.4200 for a retest of 1.4100. Tight stops.

EURUSD

The EUR/USD, as expected, made a bearish move to 1.3875, but has since rebounded to just below resistance at 1.4000 (pair currently at 1.3970). These moves basically followed US stocks during the US session - as stock lost value midday the dollar gained strength and as the stocks moved into the positive area (barely) the dollar also lost its value. I am still overall bearish on the pair and will continue to sell at resistance, and we have several layers of resistance above current price action. Trading Idea: Nearest resistance is at 1.4000, with 1.4025 and 1.4050 above that all provide downward pressure. Be wary of a short squeeze around the lower levels especially. Shorts preferred with targets at 1.3955, 1.3905 and eventually 1.385

EURUSD low

The EURUSD is lower this morning despite the better IFO data out of Germany this morning. The IFO Business Climate index came in at 85.9 vs expectations of 85.0 and up from 84.2. However, the pair was still pressured. There was a report that Germany’s budget shortfall might be larger than expectations (up to 100 Billion EUROS). The World Bank also accounced that global growth will shrink by -2.9% for 2009 vs their estimate of -1.7% in March. They also suggested that money would continue to flow out of the emerging countries. This would normally benefit the US dollar. Finally, this week the ECB has its annual funding operations.

The EURUSD tested the resistance at the 1.3888 level as per previous post and sold off to new lows on the day. However, the pair remains above the neckline of the head and shoulder formation which comes in at the 1.3809 level. A break of this level will likely lead to further selling pressure.

EURUSD OVERBOUGHT

Overbought levels appear to be causing the EUR/USD to stall out on the charts after the Memorial Day holiday in the States on Monday. On the daily the price action is just below 70 on the RSI and on the 4-hour it has just dipped below 70. Either way the pair has been pushing overbought all last week and is due for some consolidation so I will be looking to buy bounces off of support. Trading Idea: Nearest support is at 1.3895, however use extremely tight stops if you trade this level as a break below could spell much more significant drops. A more conservative support zone is around 1.3800 with targets at 1.3845, 1.3895 and 1.3935

Strong EUR/USD Close Should Signal Euro Buying

If EUR/USD sustains its current momentum up, Jim McCormick of Citigroup says it's likely time to start buying euros. The ECB's move to quantitative easing "should be good for what has been a very good risk environment," he said, especially as measures of positioning show the market is thus far under-invested in risk trades. He sees no near term reason to sell emerging market and commodity currencies.

EURUSD support 1.3191

The 100 bar MA on the 5 minute intraday chart comes in a the 1.3219 level. The MA has been leading the price higher with one brief exception for the day (the dip in the chart where the price moves…

Big Mistake for Trader

Selalunya forex trader yang baru-baru belajar atau baru menceburi bidang ini akan melakukan beberapa kesilapan besar. Kesilapan ini nampaknya remeh, tetapi memberikan impak besar terhadap KEUNTUNGAN atau MARGIN yang digunakan. Akibatnya berlakulah 'floating' yang banyak. Antara silap besar trader ialah:

1. Tidak sabar
2. Tamak - yang membawa kerugian besar apabila 'floating' menjadi semakin besar
   
3. Terburu-buru meletakkan posisi 'trade'
4. Melanggar arahan (daripada pembimbing) atau trading tidak ikut peraturan
5. Tidak peka dengan berita-berita besar yang menjejaskan pasaran kewangan
6. Tidak mengawal 'available' sehingga ada 'trade-post' yang di-'close'kan oleh broker kerana kehabisan 'available'
7. Gagal mengawal emosi - sehingga ada yang jatuh sakit
8. LUPA SOLAT!!!