Thursday, September 24, 2009


The dollar gained some strength yesterday after bears got some news that made them willing to bet on the dollar again. Specifically the fact that the government is going to continue to extend their spending programs is news that the US economy is not as peachy as previously though took away some of the risk appetite. It wasn’t much in the way of news but I personally think the EUR/USD was overbought and investors were just looking for a reason to take some profits and correct the price a little bit. Fundamentally nothing much changed, technically we saw a drop to the 23.6% fibonacci retracement level at 1.4686, which was also where the rising trendline (in blue below) happened to be. The pair has found a little support there but I will look to sell a break of that blue trendline or a failure below 1.4800. A “failure” of 1.4800 means the price goes up toward that level but gets stopped by resistance and we see some sort of bearish reversal confirmation signal (candlestick, etc.).
Trading Idea: Looking to sell a break of blue trend support line currently at 1.4710 but rising, or sell a failure below 1.4800. From 1.48 short targets are 1.4730, 1.4690, 1.4655 and 1.4620.

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