Thursday, November 5, 2009

NON Farm Payrolls

This Friday the markets look to the US as the latest Non Farm Payrolls data is released. Nothing has the power to trigger big movements in the Forex market the way Non Farm Payrolls can!
Last month, in the two hours around the Non Farm Payrolls announcement the EUR/USD moved 160 pips. Large movements like this are the reason why Non Farm Payrolls (NFP) is the talk of the Forex market.
Before Non Farm Payrolls there are two important announcements you can use to try to figure out where the dollar might be heading this week:
  1. The latest US interest rates are announced on Wednesday. Rates are expected to remain on hold, and any change could trigger a shock to the Forex market.
  2. The ADP employment change result is also released on Wednesday. This is the most important indicator in advance of Non Farm Payrolls. It can be used to predict the NFP result and is a trigger to action in the dollar all by itself.

When are the announcements happening?

ADP Employment Change
Wednesday 4th November
13.15 GMT
FOMC Rates Decision
Wednesday 4th November
19.15 GMT
Non Farm Payrolls
Friday 6th November
13.30 GMT

This month's NFP result will be watched closely. Analysts are expecting a decline in Non Farm Payrolls of around 175,000 jobs. If this is correct it suggests that while the US economic recovery is real it is happening only slowly.
  1. If the actual NFP result is a larger decline in employment it could weaken confidence in the markets and force the major currency pairs into a spin.
  2. If a stronger result is announced it could deliver a boost to the markets and create positive momentum across several pairs.
Until the result's announced, and the markets start to move, no one can be sure just what will happen but with hundreds of pips up for grabs it's worthwhile finding out! 


  1. NFP semalam memberikan profit yang lumayan buat account saya, yah rilis data ini sangat di tunggu2 para trader...

  2. Thanks paddy teruskan..boleh belanja nii smile