EURUSD moves through intraday support

The EURUSD fell through the 100 bar moving average at 1.3256 on the 5 minute chart for the first time since 1:00 PM yesterday (broke above at 1.3041). The next level of support will come in at the 1.3230 (38.2%…

Bank Stress details released

• BANKS’ ESTIMATES NOT NECESSARILY CONSISTENT WITH REGULATORS
• BANKS TO BE TOLD TO HOLD BUFFER FOR LOSSES THROUGH 2011
• SAYS CAPITAL BUFFER NEEDED ISN’T MEASURE OF SOLVENCY
• TESTS REFLECT $900 BILLION OF OFF-BALANCE-SHEET ASSETS
• BANKS SHOULDN’T BE SURPRISED AT THE RESULTS
• SUPERVISORS TO ENSURE BANKS MAINTAIN…

EURUSD

EUR/USD

The euro is trying to break above minor resistance at $1.2944, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of March's advance. If successful, resistance around $1.30 and at $1.3095, the 50% Fibonacci retracement, will be in focus. Minor support still comes in at $1.2865, the Mar. 11 high, and around $1.2835, the Mar. 16 low

EURO WEEK

The European Central Bank chief Friday brushed aside the view that the euro is weak, while saying that he is "very appreciative" of U.S. policymakers sticking to their strong dollar policy.

Jean-Claude Trichet also signaled that the bank may announce extraordinary measures for financial institutions at its next monetary policy meeting on May 7.

At a seminar held in Tokyo during a visit to Japan, Trichet said the view that the euro is weak "doesn't really seem to reflect the present situation."

"When we started the euro," he said, "the euro-dollar (exchange rate) was at $1.17; at the moment I'm speaking, we are at around something like $1.31."

"That being said," Trichet continued, "I am very, I would say, appreciative, of what is said by our U.S. friends Ben Bernanke, Tim Geithner and Barack Obama that indeed a strong dollar is in the interest of the United States of America."

Commenting on monetary policy, Trichet said, "Be sure that what we will decide will fully take into account the financing structure of the euro area economy and will be fully in line with our medium-term strategy."

Most observers expect the ECB, which some critics say has been insufficiently aggressive in cutting interest rates, to take its key rate down at least another quarter percentage point to 1.00% at the May meeting.

While remaining mum on interest rate inclinations, Trichet said he expects the European economy to continue struggling in the near term.

"The year of 2009 is a very difficult year, that's absolutely clear," Trichet said, adding that the continent has, like Japan, been hit by an "acceleration of phenomena."

Recovery would likely come "in the course of 2010," he said, sparked in part by the benefits of the low price level for oil and commodities, which he called both "disinflationary and expansionary."

Addressing the possibility of further non-standard monetary measures, Trichet stressed the centrality banks would continue to play in the European context.

Compared to the U.S., with its mainly "market-based financial system," Trichet said, in Europe "banks play such a dominant role (in providing credit to companies and consumers) that non-standard measures need to be implemented - first and foremost - through intervention and with the active participat

G/U DOWN

Short now from 4439. Stop 4505.

The last 5-wave rally (15 min chart) appears to complete a larger 3-wave rally (see 1hr chart below). My MA is rolling over so that is my signal.

That said, a 3-wave decline that does not break 4300, and especially if it holds above 4150, leaves open the possibility of a dramatic move to the up-side to break the trend-line on the weekly chart, because of the 3rd-of-3rd wave phenomenon. I will try to alert that possibility here if it develops in the market.