EUR/USD UP AND GO

EUR/USD crashed through resistance yesterday and never looked back, busting upwards almost 150 pips at its peak. With the fresh higher higher and higher low we are again looking at a steady uptrend and buying opportunities. Hourlies are close to overbought territory - which is normal in a strong trend - but we will look for dips to buy as those levels cool off. Nearest support levels are at 1.3720 and 1.3665.

Trading Idea: Looking to buy a bounce off of 1.3720, tight stops, targets at 1.3775 and 1.3830.

EURUSD

EUR/USD

The euro is trying to break above minor resistance at $1.2944, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of March's advance. If successful, resistance around $1.30 and at $1.3095, the 50% Fibonacci retracement, will be in focus. Minor support still comes in at $1.2865, the Mar. 11 high, and around $1.2835, the Mar. 16 low

EURO WEEK

The European Central Bank chief Friday brushed aside the view that the euro is weak, while saying that he is "very appreciative" of U.S. policymakers sticking to their strong dollar policy.

Jean-Claude Trichet also signaled that the bank may announce extraordinary measures for financial institutions at its next monetary policy meeting on May 7.

At a seminar held in Tokyo during a visit to Japan, Trichet said the view that the euro is weak "doesn't really seem to reflect the present situation."

"When we started the euro," he said, "the euro-dollar (exchange rate) was at $1.17; at the moment I'm speaking, we are at around something like $1.31."

"That being said," Trichet continued, "I am very, I would say, appreciative, of what is said by our U.S. friends Ben Bernanke, Tim Geithner and Barack Obama that indeed a strong dollar is in the interest of the United States of America."

Commenting on monetary policy, Trichet said, "Be sure that what we will decide will fully take into account the financing structure of the euro area economy and will be fully in line with our medium-term strategy."

Most observers expect the ECB, which some critics say has been insufficiently aggressive in cutting interest rates, to take its key rate down at least another quarter percentage point to 1.00% at the May meeting.

While remaining mum on interest rate inclinations, Trichet said he expects the European economy to continue struggling in the near term.

"The year of 2009 is a very difficult year, that's absolutely clear," Trichet said, adding that the continent has, like Japan, been hit by an "acceleration of phenomena."

Recovery would likely come "in the course of 2010," he said, sparked in part by the benefits of the low price level for oil and commodities, which he called both "disinflationary and expansionary."

Addressing the possibility of further non-standard monetary measures, Trichet stressed the centrality banks would continue to play in the European context.

Compared to the U.S., with its mainly "market-based financial system," Trichet said, in Europe "banks play such a dominant role (in providing credit to companies and consumers) that non-standard measures need to be implemented - first and foremost - through intervention and with the active participat

EURUSD TEST SUPPORT AT 1.3580

The EURUSD broke through the intraday resistance at the 1.3619-21 level and triggered stops to 1.3639. The market quickly reversed and the pair is now looking to test intraday support at the 1.3580 level where the 100 and 200 bar MA on the 5 minute chart is located. A break should solicit stops to that side, but given the choppy action, expect anything and everything.

EURUSD HIGH

The break higher above the 100 day MA has been accompanied by increased volume and increased momentum, sending the price sharply higher after some tentative attempts over the last two trading days.

The break is the first major breach since January 26th when the price moved below the key MA at the 1.3583 level. On a longer term basis, the target for the pair should be the 1.3317 level which is the 38.2% fibonacci retracement of the move down from the Dec 18th high.

The catalyst for the move higher would be a better US/global economic backdrop. If the spring brings about stabilization of the US housing market, this could bring increased confidence and slow the US employment situation. This would give banks increased confidence. As a result, the dollar would be less of a safe haven currency and the EURO would benefit.

Regardless of the dynamics for the whys, the break higher today is significant for the pair from a techinical basis.

USD/JPY

Looking at a short term USD/JPY chart on the 1 hour, the pair is currently moving towards the 38.2% retracement level near 97.05. Above this level 100 & 200 hour moving averages come in near 98.00. The next area of resistance is 100 pips away at 99.00 area.

USDJPY LONG RANGE

The longer term shows a seemly different picture. Since early March, the pair has been trending towards the 93.40 level which in the past has had multiple tests going back to November of 2008. The pair will need to break below the 95.50 area to give light to another test of this major support in the 93.40 level.

Its always a good idea to review the near term trends in the shorter charts and then to check the big picture perspective in the longer term charts like the daily.

G/u not down but up

Ternyata silap sinyalnya yang down sudah up,kena stop loss lagi..
semestinya tadi ...
Buy at 1.4439 and TP at 1.5700....
Ternyata perlu banyak belajar lagi..lagi dan lagi
teknikal analisis tak boleh dipakai sewaktu ini..ekonomi nak runtuh..
kena pakai foundalmental yaa pulak
soory newbie..tolong ajari...

G/U DOWN

Short now from 4439. Stop 4505.

The last 5-wave rally (15 min chart) appears to complete a larger 3-wave rally (see 1hr chart below). My MA is rolling over so that is my signal.

That said, a 3-wave decline that does not break 4300, and especially if it holds above 4150, leaves open the possibility of a dramatic move to the up-side to break the trend-line on the weekly chart, because of the 3rd-of-3rd wave phenomenon. I will try to alert that possibility here if it develops in the market.