Next Week EUR/USD May Up or Down

The EURUSD has had one hourly bar close below the 100 hour MA today (1st hourly close below the moving average since 4:00 ET on October 12th).  This move was reversed in the next hour. However, 4 separate hourly bars have moved below this key moving average today. Is this an indication of a further correction for the EURUSD?
For those looking that way, the market did have a double top at the 1.4967 level yesterday and today.  That often leads to some selling and indeed we did see that today.  For the bulls, the move below and back above the 100 hour MA is signficant especially since the market has not been below thay key moving average since the 12th.  Another thing in the favor of the bulls is the inability to take out the lows from Wednesday or Thursday.  Those levels came in at 1.4839 and 1.4842 respectively

EURUSD

The dollar gained some strength yesterday after bears got some news that made them willing to bet on the dollar again. Specifically the fact that the government is going to continue to extend their spending programs is news that the US economy is not as peachy as previously though took away some of the risk appetite. It wasn’t much in the way of news but I personally think the EUR/USD was overbought and investors were just looking for a reason to take some profits and correct the price a little bit. Fundamentally nothing much changed, technically we saw a drop to the 23.6% fibonacci retracement level at 1.4686, which was also where the rising trendline (in blue below) happened to be. The pair has found a little support there but I will look to sell a break of that blue trendline or a failure below 1.4800. A “failure” of 1.4800 means the price goes up toward that level but gets stopped by resistance and we see some sort of bearish reversal confirmation signal (candlestick, etc.).
Trading Idea: Looking to sell a break of blue trend support line currently at 1.4710 but rising, or sell a failure below 1.4800. From 1.48 short targets are 1.4730, 1.4690, 1.4655 and 1.4620.

Some mixed signals coming off the EUR/USD yesterday as the pair charged through resistance at 1.4255, signaling that the euro bulls are not going down without a fight. After the third bounce off support around 1.4200 the pair jumped 100 pips in 3 hours before easing off just below 1.4300. This latest thrust signals possible strength left in the Euro but I expected the upside to be limited by resistance at 1.4300 and the intersection of two trend resistance lines (yellow on chart below) just above 1.4300.

Trading Idea: Indicators are mixed, but I would look to sell with a tight stop in the 1.4315 area with an eye back down to 1.4260 and 1.4225.

EUR/USD was able to break through support (and last week’s signals) of 1.4300 but has not managed to do much since then, only getting down to around 1.4280. It has since zig-zagged in a tight range between 1.4280-1.4315. In the short, short term I expect this range to continue (might be good for some scalping) but my bias remains bullish and I will look for buying opportunities near support and on dips.

Trading Idea: Pair is right on (weak) support of 1.4280 right now, better support not seen until trend support just below 1.4250 where I will look for buying opportunities. Long targets back up to 1.4300, 1.4345 and 1.4395. If support is broken look for a re-challenge of 1.4200.

It has been a fairly predictable week (knock on wood!) for the EUR/USD pair, with price action more or less mimicking signals. Yesterday we saw the major rise, as expected to a new high of 1.44050. Bears quickly stepped in at that point to temper the rally but not after the pair had gained nearly 200 pips in under 4 hours! The pair then retreated to 1.4338 - the 38.2% fibonacci retracement of the rally. Thanks to this new high I am freshly bullish, and I would prefer to buy on dips near support.

Trading Idea: We have good support to buy around above 1.4300, which is near the 50 and 61.8 fib retracement levels of the latest rally. From there long targets are at 1.4345, 1.4385 and 1.4445

EURUSD BEARS

Bears fought back today (on positive US data), driving down the EUR/USD almost 150 pips in just 6 hours. Pair did rise steadily for the first hours of the day but hit a wall of support at 1.4350 that sent exchange rates plummeting. There is currently disagreement among economists whether positive US economic data will help or hurt the US dollar (if you haven’t read my article here on risk aversion and confusion over fundamentals). Today it definitely helped the dollar. However, as long as the pair stays above 1.4170 I am net bullish so I will look for buying opportunities, and sell any bounce off of 1.4350.

Trading Idea: Look for buying opportunities between support zones at 1.4175-1.4200. Long targets at 1.4270 and 1.4345.

EURUSD make retracement

EURUSD OVERBOUGHT

Overbought levels appear to be causing the EUR/USD to stall out on the charts after the Memorial Day holiday in the States on Monday. On the daily the price action is just below 70 on the RSI and on the 4-hour it has just dipped below 70. Either way the pair has been pushing overbought all last week and is due for some consolidation so I will be looking to buy bounces off of support. Trading Idea: Nearest support is at 1.3895, however use extremely tight stops if you trade this level as a break below could spell much more significant drops. A more conservative support zone is around 1.3800 with targets at 1.3845, 1.3895 and 1.3935

EURUSD HIGH

EUR/USD is making a strong move for the bulls on all charts 1 hour and above, with the euro having gained roughly 700 pips in the past few weeks. Technically I am bullish on the pair in the mid-term but it is very overbought in the short-term. Pair cooled off a little bit yesterday as traders consolidated their positions overall but still has room to drop so I will be looking to buy on dips.

Trading Idea: A bounce off support near 1.3475 would provide a good opportunity to reset longs. Tight stops, targets at 1.3530, 1.3595 and 1.3645.

Big Mistake for Trader

Selalunya forex trader yang baru-baru belajar atau baru menceburi bidang ini akan melakukan beberapa kesilapan besar. Kesilapan ini nampaknya remeh, tetapi memberikan impak besar terhadap KEUNTUNGAN atau MARGIN yang digunakan. Akibatnya berlakulah 'floating' yang banyak. Antara silap besar trader ialah:

1. Tidak sabar
2. Tamak - yang membawa kerugian besar apabila 'floating' menjadi semakin besar
   
3. Terburu-buru meletakkan posisi 'trade'
4. Melanggar arahan (daripada pembimbing) atau trading tidak ikut peraturan
5. Tidak peka dengan berita-berita besar yang menjejaskan pasaran kewangan
6. Tidak mengawal 'available' sehingga ada 'trade-post' yang di-'close'kan oleh broker kerana kehabisan 'available'
7. Gagal mengawal emosi - sehingga ada yang jatuh sakit
8. LUPA SOLAT!!!